Theory

Why this screener looks for what it looks for: the market theory the method rests on — relative strength, trend regime, alignment across timeframes and the exhaustion of a move.

• Altcoins amplify Bitcoin's falls, not its risesTwo thirds of an altcoin's movement owes nothing to Bitcoin. But that independence vanishes when it falls: across 67 Bybit perpetuals, altcoins amplify its falls by about half, and merely follow its rises.
• Confluence does not make a level hold, it limits the overshootDoes a moving average running through an old pivot hold better? Across 4,808 tests of the EMA 25 on 57 Bybit perpetuals, confluence does not make the level hold more often. It does reduce how far price overshoots it, in every configuration tested.
• Relative strength picks what moves, not what will riseThe screener's relative strength score, replayed over 783 Bybit perpetuals and 130 weeks. The ranking persists, but mostly by construction — and the top contracts then lag the universe in the typical case. What it really detects is volatility.
• Most gap fills happen through time, not priceAlmost every gap to the moving average eventually closes. But across 697 episodes on 55 Bybit perpetuals, most close because the average catches up with price — and in more than one case in three, price kept moving in the gap's direction.
• A 20 % gap is not a unit of measurementThe same 20 % gap is worth 1.7 standard deviations on one asset and 15.7 on another. Measured across 45 perpetuals and 28,229 observations: neither the percentage nor its normalised version predicts direction — and the spectacular figure suggesting otherwise came from nine candles.
• A 4-hour signal is only worth what the weekly saysMeasured on 49 perpetuals and 4,565 signals: what a 4-hour breakout really adds depending on whether the daily and the weekly confirm — and why context weighs more than the trigger.
• The Stochastic RSI does not tell you to buyOverbought has never meant too high. Measured on 47 Bybit perpetuals and nearly three years of daily candles: what actually follows an entry into extreme territory, and why the trend regime changes the meaning of the same number.
• The long averages: the map of the ground beneath priceWhat long averages do and do not say: their role as structure rather than signal, the regime filter, and a measurement of the well-known EMA 200 versus SMMA 99 debate.
• What “being in a trend” means: the EMAs 13, 25 and 32Why three short averages rather than one, what their spread says, and at what point a trend is considered lost.

These articles are educational and do not constitute investment advice. Legal information.